The advent of CRP in the Dakotas and eastern Montana changed that pattern. The drought of the late 1980s delayed the response, but when water came back to the prairies in the mid-1990s, mallard numbers rose to highest levels in the history of waterfowl surveys. The best production shifted south out of prairie Canada where there wasn't any funding for long-term retirement of farm land, to the northern prairies of the U.S., where there was.

That's where we've been for more than a decade -- instead of praying for a combination of good water and good upland cover, we've had the luxury of praying for the water alone, secure in the knowledge that CRP will provide a base of upland habitat for breeding prairie ducks.

That may be about to change.

The year 2007 could be a turning point for prairie ducks and the people who care about them. In that year, a huge portion of the CRP contracts in the northern prairies will expire. North Dakota will lose 1.72 million acres currently under CRP contract; Montana will lose 1.68 million acres, mostly in the eastern part of the state, which is the western edge of the pothole region; and South Dakota will lose more than 700,000 acres. More than four million acres of the Duck Factory could go back under the plow in 2007 alone.

Of course, it's possible that some or all of these contracts could be renewed, but in order for that to happen, the federal government has to accept the acreages back into CRP and find enough money to pay for the new contracts. Right now, neither one of these circumstances is assured.

CRP contracts start with the farmer, who approaches the Department of Agriculture with an offer to retire a piece of land. The Farm Service Agency (FSA), one of the divisions of USDA, scores each offer, and properties with the highest scores get CRP contracts. The scoring uses a system called the environmental benefits index (EBI), which considers the potential for reducing soil erosion, run-off, leaching nutrients from the soil and the possible benefits to wildlife. It's a complicated process, and small changes in the way it's applied can make big changes in who gets contracts.

For many years, states in the high plains have landed a substantial proportion of all the CRP contracts in the U.S., which is good for ducks but has led to criticism from Congressional representatives in other parts of the country. Statistics from the most recent CRP sign-up demonstrate that someone has been listening to the criticism.

Across the country, FSA has accepted about 48 percent of the acres offered for CRP contracts. Farmers in Tennessee did much better -- FSA accepted 84 percent of acres offered. More than 60 percent of the acreage offered in Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Wisconsin, Washington and Oregon was accepted for CRP enrollment.