BREAKING: 2024 Duck Breeding Numbers Rise Five Percent

When the 2024 Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (www.fws.gov) report was issued by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service on Tuesday morning, there was a nice amount of good news mixed into the numbers. Overall breeding duck population figures rose some 5% from last year in the traditional survey region of southern Canada and the northern U.S.

All told, after the May pond counts and breeding survey work by biologists with both the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service earlier this year as they flew, drove, and hiked across the region, the best news was that breeding duck numbers in 2024 were approximately 34 million—or 33.99 million to be exact—an increase from last year's estimate of 32.3 million ducks.

Biologists note that this year's figure of 34 million breeding ducks marks the first increase in surveyed breeding ducks since 2015, a positive development after a dry winter and early spring turned into a torrent of late spring and summertime rain in the northern Great Plains of the U.S. and portions of the Prairie Pothole region of southern Canada.

Those flooding rains—which have continued as recently as this month—spurred the May pond count, a vital indicator of the health of breeding habitat in the main duck production zones, to climb 4% this spring versus 2023.

Mallards, the benchmark species for many North American duck hunters, also received good news: a 2024 breeding population estimate of 6.6 million, some 8% above 2023 greenhead numbers.

“This year’s report suggests that some duck populations had better production last year than expected, with good carryover to spring of this year,” said Dr. Steve Adair, chief scientist for the Memphis, TN. based Ducks Unlimited, in a news release (www.ducks.org). “While estimates were down in the prairies, population levels were up in northern breeding regions. We heard reports of an early spring, with ducks migrating through when the prairies were still dry and likely overflying to the Boreal Forest. This is a pattern we’ve seen many times before, and it appears to have been the case again this year.”

Delta Waterfowl, based in Bismarck, N.D., also cheered the good news, indicating that duck numbers are up indeed and wetland habitat conditions have improved over important portions of the key Prairie Pothole Region.

“An increased breeding population of ducks and pair counts, along with wetland habitat conditions that improved throughout May and June with good spring rains across most of the prairies, should help boost duck production,” said Dr. Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist for Delta Waterfowl, in the organization's news release (Link: https://deltawaterfowl.org/annual-breeding-waterfowl-population-survey-estimates-33-99-million-ducks-up-5-from-2023/ ). “We definitely have potential bright spots for duck production in the eastern Dakotas and possibly in Manitoba. The spring rains really helped in those areas and parts of Alberta that started the spring quite dry.”

Waterfowl biologists also noted that in addition to increases in mallard breeding numbers this year, such numbers were also up for green-winged teal and scaup.

Even so, if the overall mood was brighter in August than it might have been back in the early days of April, there was also a bit of glum news on the overall surveying of breeding duck numbers for 2024, as this year's figure proved to be some 4% below the long-term average (1955-23). Also, mallard breeding numbers took their own tumble again versus the LTA, falling 16% below that 1955-23 LTA average figure.
 
Regarding individual duck species that typically breed in the Duck Factory, mallard breeding numbers weren’t the only ones that went up this year against those same numbers from 2023. Waterfowl biologists also note that breeding numbers were up this year for green-winged teal and scaup (bluebells).

In the main portion of the Duck Factory in the northern U.S. Great Plains and southern Canada, biologists noted the following 2024 breeding population numbers for key duck species that use the PPR:

• Mallards had a 2024 breeding population number of 6.609 million, up 8% from last year's figure of 6.126 million but down 16% against the LTA (1955-23).
• Gadwall had a breeding number of 2.284 million, down 11% from the 2023 number of 2.561 million, but up 11% against the LTA.
• American wigeon were at 2.922 million, up some 55% from 2023's figure of 1.890 million and 12% above the LTA.
• Green-winged teal sat at 3.005 million, up 20% from last year's  breeding population number of 2.503 million and up 38% against the LTA.
• Blue-winged teal were at 4.599 million, down 12% from last year's figure of 5.250 million and down 10% from the LTA.
• Northern shovelers were at 2.646 million, down 7% from the 2023 figure of 2.858 million and right on the LTA number.
• Northern pintails were at 1.975 million, down 11% versus last year’s 2.219 million and down 49% against the LTA.
• Redheads were at 782,000, down 16% from 930,000 a year ago but up 6% from the LTA.
• Canvasbacks sat at 566,000, down 8% against last year's figure of 619,000, down 4% against the LTA.
• Scaup sat at 4.059 million, up 16% versus last year's 3.517 million but down 17% against the LTA. In addition to the numbers mentioned above, it's worth noting that while pintails were down 11% from last year’s breeding figure, a recent understanding that previous pintail numbers may have been inaccurately assessed has led to a three-pintail daily bag limit in 2025-26 after a recently approved interim pintail harvest strategy was adopted.

Biologists also noted that this year’s May pond count estimates in the U.S. and Canadian nesting grounds were at 5.2 million, a 4% increase from a year ago. And while this year’s late spring and summer rains may have been too late to benefit early migrators this spring, as those ducks begin to migrate southward in a few weeks, they should find habitat more to their liking as they push down the flyways.

Away from the PPR, biologists found that habitat in Alaska, British Columbia, and other northern survey areas was also improved. Such areas are essential to Pacific Flyway hunters and duck hunters in those spots should benefit from better breeding numbers too.

In the Eastern Survey Area that is important to hunters in the Atlantic Flyway, duck breeding population survey numbers also increased in five major duck species that are surveyed there.

Mallards didn't increase, however, and saw a small drop this year to 1.169 million. That 2024 figure is down 4% from last year's breeding benchmark of 1.222 million greenheads and 9% from the LTA.

Also, wood ducks saw their 2024 population estimates in the Eastern Survey Area dip down to 900,000 breeding wood ducks this year. That’s a drop of some 10% from last year's 1.000 million breeding wood ducks and is right on the LTA mark.

Leading the way in the Eastern Survey Area in terms of breeding population increases for 2024 were goldeneyes, which had a breeding number of 1.201 million in 2024, up 42% from last year's figure of 836,000. Other eastern ducks seeing gains this year were green-winged teal (468,000, up 20% from last year's 384,000 and up 23% from the LTA); American black ducks (862,000, up 17% versus 2023's breeding figure of 736,000 and up 23% from the LTA); ring-necked ducks (731,000, up 9% from 2023's 666,000 figure and up 2% from the LTA); and mergansers (993,000, up 1% from last year's 987,000 and up 23% from the LTA).

All in all, today’s news brought some smiles and relief. While not at the same levels that duck breeding population figures have been over the past decade or so, the 2024 breeding duck news brought a few smiles where there might have been frowns only a few months ago.

It remains to be seen what the fall flight will look like, especially since weather, hunting pressure, wintering habitat, food availability, and more can affect duck migrations down the flyways.

But for now, there’s plenty to look forward to if you’re a duck hunter. Get the decoys ready and make sure the retriever is ready to go. Because the 2024 duck season is coming to a blind near you soon, and hopefully, when it does, it will do so with more than a few bangs as you collect the main ingredients for a prime duck dinner.

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