While the news has been somewhat dismal about this year's duck numbers, the USFWS duck counts prove that the fall flight won't look much different than last year's. (Photo courtesy of Clinton Kelley.)
By Lynn Burkhead
The USFWS announced its 2025 Waterfowl Population Status Report results today on Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025, and the numbers were all but a dead heat with the numbers the Service released in 2024 .
Specifically, the breeding population survey—obtained each May and early June by biologists with the USFWS and the Canadian Wildlife Service as they drive and fly transect routes in the Traditional Survey Area of southern Canada and the northern U.S.— found a 2025 estimate of 33.98 million ducks, down ever so slightly from last year's 33.99 million figure. (Link. )
With roughly 34 million breeding ducks in the TSA this year, hunters could potentially expect similar fall flight prospects as they saw last year, although weather, agriculture, landscape practices, and other things can certainly influence local waterfowl population and hunting results.
As was the case a year ago, the 2025 breeding duck population figure remains 4% below the long-term average (Source: Ducks.org ). It's important to note that last year's mark of 34 million breeding ducks was an increase, the first such since 2025.
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Today's news also showed that mallards, the bread-and-butter trophy duck for many of North America's hunters each fall, were estimated at 6.6 million breeding ducks. Those numbers are also similar to last year's breeding figure and remain 17% under the long-term average (LTA).
According to Delta Waterfowl president and chief scientist, the mallard status quo likely comes due to the greenhead's frequent flyer miles.
“The survey shows a bit of a redistribution of mallards from last year when a higher percentage settled in the Yukon and Northwest Canada,” Rohwer said in a Delta news release . “In southern Saskatchewan, mallards had a little better water this spring, but it was still dry there.”
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“The survey shows a bit of a redistribution of mallards from last year when a higher percentage settled in the Yukon and Northwest Canada,” Rohwer said in a Delta news release. “In southern Saskatchewan, mallards had a little better water this spring, but it was still dry there.” Source: Delta Waterfowl. (Photo courtesy of Clinton Kelley.) Pintails, another species that many duck hunters are interested in, actually showed a 13% increase for this summer, checking in at 2.2 million breeders in 2025. While that's better than a year ago, it's still 41% below the LTA.
“I think there’s new evidence that pintails in the Arctic are reproducing better than we gave them credit for,” said Rohwer. “We used to think when the prairies were dry, they’d go to the Arctic and not breed. With the prairies in a drought, the Arctic and boreal forest regions seem to be producing enough ducks to maintain the populations.”
MEMPHIS, Tenn. – Sept. 2, 2025 – The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) today released its 2025 Waterfowl Population Status Report. This report contains results from surveys and population estimation methods conducted by the USFWS, Canadian Wildlife Service and numerous state and provincial partners. The estimate for total breeding ducks in the traditional survey area was 34 million, unchanged from the 2024 estimate, and 4% below the long-term average (since 1955). Mallards were estimated at 6.6 million, similar to 2024, and 17% below the long-term average. Pintails were estimated at 2.2 million, 13% above 2024, but 41% below the long-term average. Under the new USFWS interim pintail harvest strategy, hunters in all four flyways are expected to have a three-pintail daily bag limit option for next year’s 2026–2027 season based on this year’s breeding population results. To learn more about the interim pintail harvest strategy, visit the USFWS website .
The 2025 May pond estimate was 4.2 million, a 19% decrease from the 2024 estimate of 5.2 million and 20% below the long-term average. Notably, this marks the lowest pond estimate since 2004.
“Waterfowl again demonstrated their adaptability to changing water conditions despite overall dry conditions in 2024, as late-nesting species capitalized on spring rains in the prairies and those that settled in the Boreal held their own,” said Dr. Steve Adair, Ducks Unlimited chief scientist. “These flexible breeding strategies and use of continental habitat resources in 2024 appear to have contributed to decent production last year, which carried over to a similar breeding population this spring.”
Other Key Takeaways According to the companion Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) report, the USFWS is expected to recommend liberal frameworks for the 2026–2027 duck season across all four flyways. Blue-winged teal estimates in the traditional survey area were 4.4 million, a 4% decreasfrom 2024, which is expected to keep hunters in the Central, Mississippi and Atlantic flyways at a 9-day early teal season for 2026–2027.The Boreal Forest and other northern survey areas saw generally drier, but variable, habitat conditions. Yet an early spring coupled with prairie drought resulted in another year of an above-average number of breeding ducks settling in the Boreal.Canvasbacks (+22%) and redheads (+17%) saw notable increases from 2024.Eastern survey area duck populations remained healthy, reflecting overall stable wetland conditions. Atlantic Flyway hunters are expected to have another four-mallard daily bag limit for the 2026–2027 season.Graphic courtesy of Ducks Unlimited and Ducks.org. The sleek, slender pintail—or sprig, as many duck hunters call them—is a species of particular concern to waterfowlers and waterfowl managers right now. After giving the green light last fall, states like Texas voted to adopt a new pintail bag limit that increases from one to three. please visit here .
Besides the ever-popular greenhead and the pintail, gadwalls showed an upward trend in 2025, checking in with 2.414 million breeders in 2025, up 6% from a year ago and up 17% versus the LTA.
Other species showing an increase in breeding numbers this year include the American wigeon, which jumped 9% from last year. Checking in at 3.191 million, the baldpate breeder figure is up 22% versus the LTA. “Wigeon seem to be defying logic again,” said Rohwer. “They breed in the prairies and the Arctic. I have to believe the Arctic is producing more ducks than we thought.”
Northern shovelers notched 2.758 million breeders in 2025, up 4% from both 2024 figures and the LTA. Diving duck hunters can rejoice as well since redheads checked in with 0.918 million breeders, up 17% from last year and up 25% against the LTA. Canvasbacks were at 0.690 million breeders this year, up 22% from a year ago and up 17% from the LTA.
On the disappointing side of the duck population ledger is the blue-winged teal, which declined 4% from a year ago with a breeding figure of 4.432 million this year. A 13% decline against the LTA, this year's breeding bluewing number will likely keep hunters in the Central, Mississippi, and Atlantic Flyways saddled with a 9-day early teal season for the fall of 2026-27.
Green-winged teal, another bread and butter duck for many hunters, saw their 2025 breeding figure tumble to 2.550 million, some 15% below last year. There remains a slight bit of good news for the speedy and delectable greenwing however, since the popular and colorful teal species sits at 16% above the LTA.
And finally, the news for scaup—or bluebills, as most duck hunters call them—continues to be disappointing, with the diving duck species checking in at 3.675 million breeders in 2025. That figure represents a 10% decline from last year and a 25% decline against the LTA.
It's worth noting that duck breeding population figures continue to be healthy in the Eastern Survey Area, something we'll cover in a separate story here on WildfowlMag.com. That relative health in breeding numbers stems from stable wetland habitat in the Atlantic Flyway, where hunters can likely expect another four-bird mallard daily bag limit next fall.
Today's news release might be a bit of a surprise given the earlier spring waterfowl news that came out of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of southern Canada and the northern U.S. Precipitation in the PPR was dismal in many locales after last winter and early spring, although some rebound in moisture levels did occur later on in the spring.
Even so, initial breeding duck population news from North Dakota wasn't good earlier in the year after the North Dakota Game and Fish conducted its 78th annual statewide spring breeding duck survey, finding a May index figure of 2.66 million ducks in the Peace Garden State.
That North Dakota figure was down from 2.9 million in 2024 and down from 3.4 million in 2023. Coupled with the fact that the NDGF figure was only the 33rd highest on record and only exceeded the 1948-2024 LTA in the state, many waterfowl observers were bracing for potential tough news when the USFWS report was announced.
Finally, it's worth considering that the worst news out of this year's breeding duck and pond count survey is in fact, the pond counts this spring in the northern U.S. and southern Canada. After last winter's sparse precipitation and several years of drought now stacked upon one another, this year's pond count numbers tumbled to 4.2 million, a dismal 19% decrease from a year ago and 21% versus the LTA.
Of particular note is that this year's pond count figure is the lowest figure since 2004, raising the alarm for future years if the drought doesn't reverse itself up north.
The report from Ducks Unlimited shows that while some duck species are down from last year's count, others are up and continuing to increase on their Long-Term Average (LTA). Photo courtesy of Clinton Kelley.) “Although May rains provided some relief to extremely dry winter conditions, the cumulative effects of widespread and long-term drought in the prairies are apparent, as parched soils soak up available moisture and more and more wetlands continue to dry out,” said DU's Adair about today's USFWS report. “There are long-term benefits of recycling nutrients and exposure of seed banks, but droughts are painful when they’re happening.”
While there are indeed long-term benefits, getting to that threshold may bring more pain to duck hunters this fall, particularly in the southern Great Plains and the Deep South. Why? Because even though figures are essentially the same as a year ago, it's important to recall that duck figures last year weren't banner numbers.
“Duck production is not likely to be good this year,” said Rohwer. “When you look at the wetland conditions maps from May, they show it was very dry everywhere across the prairie pothole region except eastern South Dakota. The best hunting seasons occur in wet years when the fall flight has more young ducks in the migration.”
While that's true in general, Rohwer also notes that all of this year's duck news isn't status quo. In fact, there are still ample reasons to get up early and head for the duck blind.
“If there’s good news for southern hunters, it’s that a lot of gadwalls settled in the eastern Dakotas, and green-winged teal are above the long-term average,” he said. “Hunters in Louisiana and Texas will still have green wings and gadwalls.”
Stay tuned to Wildfowlmag.com as more news comes in the next few months about the 2025 Fall Flight.
