(Photo credit: Chris Jennings | Ducks Unlimited.)
August 12, 2024
By Ryan Barnes
As this year’s hunting season draws closer each day, waterfowl hunters are begging for some insight on what to expect on opening day. Are duck numbers up? Down? About the same? Luckily, a recent report from Ducks Unlimited (DU) sheds some light on what we can expect in certain states regarding duck numbers.
With their State Waterfowl Survey results, DU found that some species are on an upward climb in areas, especially in areas like Michigan, which are boasting some outstanding reports, while other numbers might make hunters want to grit their teeth a bit.
(Photo credit: John Hoffman.) The following report is from Ducks Unlimited.
WESTERN MALLARDS | PACIFIC FLYWAY RESULTS Western mallards are defined as those breeding in select areas in the far northwest of the Traditional Survey Area (TSA), as well as those breeding in the states of California, Oregon, Washington, and the Canadian province of British Columbia. The health and status of these western mallards, understood by data included in these surveys, are crucial because the federal AHM framework in the Pacific Flyway is based exclusively on the population status of these birds. A significant percentage of each of these state’s annually harvested mallards also come from local breeding. Below are the state-by-state Pacific Flyway results for 2024.
Advertisement
CALIFORNIA The California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey observed a decrease in the estimated total breeding duck population, down by an estimated 25% from 2023, with an average of 374,000 ducks, 30% below the long-term average (LTA).
"Despite another good water year, the lack of adequate nesting habitat, particularly in the Central Valley, continues to restrict waterfowl population growth in California," said CDFW Waterfowl Program Biologist Melanie Weaver.
Mallards were estimated at 178,000, reflecting a decrease of 12% from 2023 and 44% below the LTA. Gadwalls saw a decrease of approximately 39% from 2023, with an estimated 54,000, marking a decrease of 37% below the LTA.
Advertisement
Spring rains in March and April were at or slightly below normal, but the snowpack was above the LTA across all representative survey areas. Combined with full reservoirs, habitat conditions have continued to improve since the end of the last drought (2020–2023).
WASHINGTON The Washington Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey shows the estimated duck population decreased by 22% from 2023, reaching an estimated 160,000, which is an 18% decrease from the LTA. Mallard populations decreased to 86,000, marking a 15% decrease from 2023 and a 6% decrease from the LTA.
Additionally, the Canada goose (western) population increased to an estimated 35,000, an approximate 5% increase from 2023, but remains 8% below the LTA.
"Washington state, particularly the Columbia Basin, continues to experience long-term drought. Crews have reported wetland habitat conditions that range from similar to poorer compared to previous years. In eastern Washington, several semi-permanent water bodies have dried up completely, shifting production potential to higher river valleys and pothole regions. Early reports from banding crews indicate only marginal production so far," says Kyle Spragens, WDFW Waterfowl Sections Manager.
OREGON The Oregon Breeding Waterfowl Population Report shows that the state’s total breeding duck estimate increased to 303,000, up 53% from 2023 and approximately 14% above the LTA.
Mallards increased by a modest 4% from 2023, rising to approximately 71,000, but they remain 20% below the LTA. Gadwall numbers saw a rise to approximately 65,000, up 114% from 2023 and 21% above the LTA. Shovelers were the most abundant species on the survey, with an estimated 81,000 individuals.
"A significant driver of the increase in surveyed ducks this spring was the presence of large flocks of gadwall and shoveler, as well as other Boreal breeding species, many of which may not be nesting within the state. Unfortunately, no one can say with 100% confidence whether these large flocks of ducks will stay or leave, or what proportion will stay," said Dr. Dan Smith, waterfowl scientist in Ducks Unlimited’s Western Region.
Wetland conditions were generally favorable due to above-average winter precipitation, particularly in eastern Oregon. However, minimal rainfall in April led to a lack of sheet water and flooded ditches in western Oregon, particularly in the south Willamette Valley, negatively affecting local wetland conditions.
(Photo credit: John Hoffman.) MID-CONTINENT MALLARDS | GREAT LAKES RESULTS Mallard data from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota are combined with population and habitat data from the May Survey to create a comprehensive understanding of the mid-continent mallard (MCM) population. This data is used by the USFWS to inform the AHM process and resulting duck harvest frameworks for the Central and Mississippi Flyways. Below are the state-by-state Great Lakes results for 2024.
WISCONSIN The Wisconsin Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey estimated the breeding duck population at 502,000, a 4% decrease from 2023 but 13% above the LTA.
Key species trends show mallards at approximately 147,000, down by 8% from 2023 and 18% below the LTA. Blue-winged teal were comparable at an estimated 104,000, up by 2% from 2023 and similar to their LTA. Wood ducks were estimated at 97,000, similar to 2023 and 13% above the LTA; and Canada geese were estimated at 153,000, down 4% from 2023 but 42% above the LTA.
(Photo credit: Chris Jennings | Ducks Unlimited.) MICHIGAN The Michigan Breeding Waterfowl Population Survey, conducted from April 15 to May 10, estimated 674,000 ducks, a 394% increase from the 2023 record low and 12% above the LTA. Mallards were estimated at 251,000, up 203% from 2023 but 22% below the LTA.
The number of Canada geese was estimated at 281,000, a 29% increase from 2023 and 21% above the LTA.
The 2024 survey began on April 15 and ended on May 10, which is approximately one week earlier than previous survey years due to warmer spring temperatures and a subsequent earlier leaf out. This earlier start may have contributed to some migrating birds being counted in the survey. For example, this year saw a higher number of large groups of mallards (over 20 individuals) being counted compared to the previous two years.
MINNESOTA The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey estimated the population for total ducks at 445,000, including scaup, which was 10% below 2023 and 34% below the LTA.
The estimate for mallards was 141,000, 37% lower than 2023 and 38% below the LTA. The blue-winged teal population was 160,000, 26% higher than the 2023 estimate and 23% below the LTA. The population of Canada geese was 106,000, 7% below last year’s estimate and 31% below the LTA.
According to the report, “With an earlier-than-normal ice-out throughout the state and dry conditions persisting through the ice-out period, settling conditions were likely poor and didn’t attract many breeding ducks to the landscape.”
